stevenpiziks | How To Predict the Plot

There's a pattern to all scene plotting, and if you know what it is, you can predict almost anything in a story. So don't read this if you want to preserve your literary virginity.

Conflict always starts because the protagonist wants something, and something else stands in the way. This want can be anything from, "I want her to go out with me" (in which the obstacle is the character's insecurity) to "I want to survive this gunfight without getting my ear shot off" (in which the obstacle is five men who keep shooting back).

You can predict the outcome by looking at how the protagonist views the conflict. There are two ways: 1) the protagonist is sure of the outcome; or 2) the protagonist unsure of the outcome. Let's look at these.

In the first case, the protagonist is completely certain the conflict will end a certain way. James is completely confident that she'll agree to go out with him; that his plan will succeed; that he can beat up his rival. In this case, James will fail. She turns him down flat. His plan collapses. The rival beats the tar out of him. Why? It's a surprise plot twist! The writer sets things up so James can't help but succeed, and knows it. So of course, he fails. Every time.

The reverse is also true, by the way. If James is certain he's going to fail, he'll unexpectedly succeed. He's certain she'll turn him down, but he asks anyway, just to prove how much of a schlub he is, but—surprise!—she says yes. His plan is stupid and won't work, but he tries anyway, but—ta da!—it works. There's no way he'll be able to win this fight, but he can't avoid it, so he braces himself for a beating, but—twist!—he gets in a lucky punch and down goes the bad guy.

This is a hubris thing. James cockily decides he's going to win, so he has to lose in order to bring him down a peg. Or it's a the-gods-show-pity thing. James is sad that he's going to lose, so he has to succeed to give him a little boost.

In the second case, James is actually worried about the outcome. He's nervous about asking her out because she might say yes, but she could also say no—and she says yes. The plan might succeed, but it probably won't, and when we put it into action, it works. The fight could go either way, and it goes to James. Authors do this to create suspense. Will James succeed or fail? Keep reading to find out!

Except now that you know the pattern, you don't need to keep reading to find out—you'll already know.

Just kidding! Keep reading. The story is still fun.